Last week, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) joined Senate Democrats in filing an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to find President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enact unprecedented tariffs on goods from Brazil unconstitutional. On Tuesday, four more Republican senators —Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul of Kentucky, Maine’s Susan Collins, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina —supported a joint resolution to do so, which passed in a 52-48 vote.
The resolution is unlikely to see a vote in the Republican-controlled U.S. House, which remains closed, so it is unlikely to become law. It does, however, highlight a rare instance in which at least some Republicans have proven willing to buck Trump in an actual vote, and as the U.S. economy continues to sputter amid deep job cuts, that pressure could be felt by House members as well. UPS recently cut a whopping 48,000 jobs. Amazon has cut 14,000 jobs and plans to cut up to 30,000. Intel has announced it will cut 24,000 jobs this year, while Nestlé is cutting 16,000. Ford and Accenture have laid off 11,000 workers each.
Tariffs and AI are significant drivers of the layoffs. The removal of so many Americans from payrolls will undoubtedly have an adverse effect on consumer spending. However, when you consider the number of federal employees who are currently furloughed or working without pay, the problem is grossly compounded. In total, roughly 1.4 million federal employees are currently not receiving their normal paycheck (about half are furloughed, and the other half are working without pay). That doesn't even consider the approximately one million contractor-employed workers (custodial, IT, food service, security roles, etc.) who have been impacted.
Why is the government still shut down?
Congress must pass an annual appropriations bill before the start of each new fiscal year on October 1. The bill provides the funding covering one fiscal year. The federal government's fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. Appropriations bills fall under the jurisdiction of the House and Senate appropriations committees. Both committees have 12 matching subcommittees, each tasked with working on one of the 12 annual regular appropriations bills.
Regular appropriations bills are the 12 standard bills that fund the federal government for one fiscal year and are enacted into law. If Congress has not enacted the regular appropriations bills by October 1, it may pass a continuing resolution. A CR usually continues the pre-existing appropriations at the same levels as the previous fiscal year, or with minor modifications, for a set period of time. If Congress fails to pass either, or if the president uses his veto power, it may result in a government shutdown.
Historically, shutdowns have been a tool used by Republican lawmakers when their party has not been in power. In most cases, they've used shutdowns or the threat of one to seek concessions on spending cuts. This time, Democrats, who have experienced a freezing out by the majority party that is unprecedented, attempted to use the threat of a shutdown to get Republicans to renew subsidies to the Affordable Care Act that were cut by Republicans after having been reinstated during COVID, arguing that the huge spike in costs Americans would see in terms of health insurance premiums was unsustainable.
Republicans balked, saying they would negotiate only on insurance subsidies if Democrats would pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Fearing they would lose any leverage in such negotiations if they caved on a CR, Democrats resisted, and the parties remain in their current stalemate.
A Kaiser Family Foundation analysis released this week found that health insurance premiums on the ACA Marketplaces will rise an average of 26% next year, before insurers account for the loss of tax credits. 22 million out of 24 million ACA marketplace enrollees currently receive a tax credit. The amount subsidized enrollees pay is a sliding scale based on a share of their household income, determined by a formula set by Congress. If Congress extends the enhanced tax credits, enrollees' monthly premium payments will remain about the same, even as insurers' charges increase.
Health insurance experts warn that the dynamic could cause a death spiral as younger, healthier enrollees gamble on whether they'll need coverage, making the overall pool less healthy and therefore more expensive. This will cause premium rates to spike again, with a new round of healthy or semi-healthy enrollees likely to flee the system, until all that is left is a pool of chronically ill users whose costs are not offset by more healthy ones.
Nuclear Option
Senate Republicans could use their slim majority to vote to end the 60-vote threshold required to avoid a filibuster, using the so-called "nuclear option." Senate rules mandate that most legislation requires 60 votes to pass, a step known as invoking cloture. Invoking cloture is the formal process for ending Senate debate on a legislative proposal and proceeding to a vote, primarily used to overcome a filibuster.
Once cloture is invoked, debate is limited to a maximum of 30 additional hours, during which only germane amendments that were submitted in writing before the cloture vote may be considered. Before 1917, the Senate rules did not provide for a way to end debate and force a vote. That year, the Senate adopted a rule allowing a two-thirds majority to end a filibuster. In 1975, the Senate reduced the number of votes required for cloture from two-thirds of senators voting to three-fifths of all senators duly chosen and sworn, or 60 of the 100 members.
Some Republicans in the House, including Marjorie Taylor Greene and Chip Roy, have openly called for the Senate to use the nuclear option and reduce the threshold to a CR to a simple majority. This week, President Trump took to his social media platform to urge Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to do so. For his part, our own Congressman Vern Buchanan (R-Longboat Key) has only parroted Speaker Johnson's talking points while continuing his refusal to face constituents in a town hall.
Republican Senators Josh Hawley and Rick Scott have expressed openness to the idea. House Speaker Mike Johnson, like Thune, has expressed disdain for the idea, warning that ending the 60-vote threshold could come back to bite Republicans when Democrats regain control of the chamber.
Dennis "Mitch" Maley is an editor and columnist for The Bradenton Times and the host of our weekly podcast. With over two decades of experience as a journalist, he has covered Manatee County government since 2010. He is a graduate of Shippensburg University and later served as a Captain in the U.S. Army. Click here for his bio. Mitch is also the author of three novels and a short story collection available here.
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jimandlope
Vern who?
Sunday, November 2, 2025 Report this
Charles
- Drive out of office any who decline to oppose or who participate in any of this nonsense and let them know that we intend to do that. Silence while it is taking place is clear acceptance by any official. Manatee has begun replacing them, lots more to go as we work our way up to responsible leadership at all levels — it is up to the citizens to get this job done, lots of mucking out needed, let's get at it.
Sunday, November 2, 2025 Report this
rjckeuka4
Vern is the epitome of the "deaf and dumb" Republican legislator...he doesn't have to think...just vote the way the president tells him! There's only one solution...get him out!! Get out and vote like we did with KVO!!
Sunday, November 2, 2025 Report this
san.gander
What would end the fears of both parties and serve the American people the best? End privatized insurance... the pay or die system of care! It is time for an American National Public Health Care System... like Sweden's! Yes, one that uses the highest standards of scientific based medicine... no RFK, Jr. "witch doctor stuff" - no forced "religious choices and murders of women"!
Sunday, November 2, 2025 Report this
David Daniels
Great comments Charles, rjckeuka4 (it would be nice to know your names), and san.gander - and especially jimandlope. Vern who is right. Someone needs to explain to Vern and the rest of the R representatives that our founders intentionally made Congress ARTICLE ONE of the Constitution for a reason. Congress is where the most power is vested. Not only do they have the power to make the laws, the Constitution gives them control of taxing and spending. They have the power of oversight over Article II (executive) power. They have the power to terminate the President (Article II) and judiciary (article III) through impeachment. Congress, and only Congress has the power to declare war. Vern Buchanan is collecting his full paycheck and benefits, including free health insurance, during this shutdown - but he is sitting at home. There is no valid reason for the House to not be in session. It is because Republicans like Vern are afraid of Donald Trump that they cower in silence, afraid to say or do anything that might invoke a tweet. It is pathetic. Vern Buchanan is pathetic.
Sunday, November 2, 2025 Report this
teamj1009
Buchanan is only a puppet and acts like a groundhog popping his head only when he needs to. You never hear from him and when is the last time you saw that he did anything for the Florida constituents. Rarely if at all. He is a follower not a leader.
He is so well entrenched and his political team $$$$$ that he is tough to beat as the voters don't keep up with what they need to do.
Will he get back in as a career politician most likely and that is tragic.
If you remember from history class back in the Lincoln days they called one of the parties the "Do Nothings". That is what we have today. From local politicians, State, and National only producing what benefits themselves.
If the voters do not take the control back in 2026 & 2028 the opportunity will be lost.
Sunday, November 2, 2025 Report this