And Now... the Democrats

The convention hit a high-note early when the 42nd President of the United States, Bill Clinton, gave a typically rousing speech, defending President Obama's record and arguing for a second term. Let's face it, Clinton has far and away the highest approval and favorability rating of any living President. Most Americans of every political persuasion remember the '90s as better times, with what today seems like an impossible stretch of time without major military conflict, while enjoying high employment and greater global stability.

Republicans tried to preempt the Clinton effect by sending Ryan out on the trail with a message that President Obama was a “different kind of Democrat.” But President Clinton's focus on policy and arithmetic as he put it, was the first concrete effort by Democrats to defend the success of their recent policies – something the President, for all of his talent in public speeches, hasn't been able to effectively do.

It's often said that presidents campaign in poetry and govern in prose, but the stark difference between President Obama on the trail and in the rose garden couldn't be more vivid. While his pragmatic focus and disdain for politicizing issues should be pluses, they have nonetheless left him with little connection to the American people on many of his better political achievements. Democrats did a good job of selling their successes this week from the rescue of the auto industry to Osama bin Laden, to ending combat operations in Iraq.

Cornered on the issue of health care reform, which remains relatively unpopular and equally misunderstood, Democrats decided to put the issue front and center. Time and again, speeches were peppered with lines that referred to specific examples of unfortunate Americans who have been helped by the reforms, even embracing the conservative's pejorative term for it, Obamacare. The most redundant theme of the three days was definitely women's rights, from the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act to the provisions for non-discrimination in health insurance premiums and access to care embedded in the healthcare reforms. There's a clear electoral argument for going all out in seeking the women vote, as Romney will have a difficult, even near-impossible time in battleground states if he's beaten by a wide margin in the female vote in states like Ohio.

The convention also marked a noticeable departure in terms of including factions once taken for granted, and even kept somewhat hidden in years past. Don't Ask Don't Tell and gay marriage were mentioned often, as was immigration and the Dream Act. There seems to be a departure away from the middle on social issues with both parties realizing that turnout and enthusiasm among their base is an easier factor to influence, while banking that an affinity to either party's fiscal platform will ultimately be the factor that sways independent and undecided voters. Democrats do not seem to be worried any longer about alienating moderate voters on progressive social issues, perhaps because they see that such voters would have to go so far to the right in seeking an alternative.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick put the B.S. meter through its toughest workout of the week. Governor Patrick flew fast and loose with the facts, asserting that while Romney was governor of his state, he gutted education, which simply doesn't check out. Neither did Patrick's claims that business confidence was down when Romney left office, or that family incomes were declining. And when the Governor boasted that his state leads the nation in education today, he failed to mention that has been the case since before either he or Romney were at the helm.

Patrick had enough solid data – Romney did leave the state with a deficit caused by tax cuts, Massachusetts was 47th in the U.S. in job creation and business taxes were up significantly when he left office. But the Governor still seemed like too much of a typical politician in the way he stretched the facts to suit his own purpose. As Boston's local NPR station pointed out, he also made himself look hypocritical for some of his own policies. To summarize the Boston Globe's assessment, Romney inherited a fiscal situation as governor that was not unlike the one President Obama inherited on a national scale and did about as well, in terms of results, while employing somewhat similar policies, though they seem at odds with what he currently professes to think of as good medicine. The oft-repeated "4.3 million jobs created" line was also dubious, as it includes temporary census positions. Both parties also continue to argue that the other plans to raise taxes on the middle class without any real proof either way.

In terms of policy, it was President Clinton, a wonk among wonks, who was able to simplify the agendas and break down the math. His line that these guys want to reduce the deficit by starting out with a giant tax cut for the rich that will add trillions to the debt long before they ever take any away gave Americans a serious bone to chew on. Clinton also knocked it out of the park with his data on job creation among presidents.

"What's the job score?" Clinton asked, "Republicans: 24 million – Democrats: 42 (million)." The former President was quoting numbers first reported by Bloomberg last May, after analyzing growth in the private sector since 1961. Clinton, however, shrewdly used the data to make a case for the platform. "It turns out that advancing equal opportunity and economic empowerment is both morally right and good economics," Clinton said. "Why? Because poverty, discrimination and ignorance restrict growth. When you stifle human potential, when you don’t invest in new ideas, it doesn't just cut off the people who are affected; it hurts us all."

One can argue how much impact a president has on job creation and make a very good point about how the flawed policies of one, can impede the success of the next. But it is Romney and Ryan who are attacking Obama's impact on job creation and promising to create 12 million new ones themselves with scant details as to how, while attacking Democrats for bringing up the impact of Bush's trillions of dollars in unfunded wars and tax cuts. Taken in that context, President Clinton's statement is sobering and effectively uses Romney and Ryan's own argument against them. Politically, it was nothing short of brilliant. Democrats cannot claim to have a plan to halve unemployment, close the deficit or wind down the debt, but thanks to Clinton, they've effectively pointed out that neither can the other guys.

Another successful strategy was the focus on policies affecting current soldiers. While Republicans have long enjoyed an edge among prior-service veterans, and Romney is still clobbering the President in this demographic, the Walter Reed scandal, increased deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan after Defense Secretary Rumsfeld's force reduction, and claims that injured veterans were being systematically denied treatment caused current-soldier support to plummet throughout the Bush era, with many defecting to Congressman Ron Paul's camp in 2008 and 2012. The President, the First Lady and both Bidens have been busily supporting outreach to military families and have cultivated strong support not only among soldiers, but their spouses and parents as well. The President now leads in polling among active soldiers.

In the end, President Obama faces the challenge of rallying support at a time when things in this country are better than they were when he took office, as our country teetered on the edge of a depression with the economy shedding nearly 800,000 jobs per month, yet remain pretty dismal for most Americans. Asking for more time is always harder than asking for a first chance. He also faces the challenge of selling the idea that things could have been much worse, rather than look, I made us whole again. It's easy to see new jobs that are created and good jobs that are lost, but it's much less tangible to think of jobs that would have been lost but weren't – like teachers, municipal workers and first responders who hung on thanks to stimulus funds filtered down to the states as their revenues plummeted. 

But Democrats did a good job last week of reminding Americans how bad things were and what an America that doesn't make cars anymore and has a couple extra million unemployed might look like today, while questioning what their opponents have actually laid out in detail as an alternative approach beyond policies that are eerily similar to those of the Bush years – cut taxes, cut regulations and start a war with Iran first chance we get. Oh yeah, and all that talk about balancing budgets and closing deficits? Turns out that'll have to wait – there's a war on. Now quick, let's privatize Social Secuirty.

President Obama can't say that employment is at a healthy level or that as many Americans are working now as were in 2008, that he can promise to fix institutional problems in our economy, or that he's done much of anything to fix problems in the housing or banking sectors. He can say that his bailout of General Motors worked, that Osama bin Laden is dead, that more Americans will have access to basic health care than anytime in modern history, and that Americans have reason to feel more confident that World War III is less likely to occur while he's in the White House. The challenge for Mitt Romney is to convince enough Americans that he can offer more. 

also by Dennis this week:

DNC Wraps Up: 2012 Presidential Election is On

.....