Charlie Crist vs. Rick Scott in 2014?

The Internet has been abuzz with speculation that Charlie Crist might be positioning himself for a run against Rick Scott in the 2014 Florida gubernatorial race – as a Democrat! On the surface, this might sound like typical horse-race specualtion, but there are signs that it might be true – and that it might make good political sense.

I don't need to tell you that Crist's Senate run was disastrous. Seen as a shoe in before the primary process began, the sitting governor was the first and biggest candidate to get unexpectedly chest-punched by the Tea Party and their dominance of the 2010 GOP primary process, both in Florida and across the U.S. In almost no time at all, it was clear that Marco Rubio would get the nomination and though an independent run may have seemed like a good idea early, it quickly became apparent that Crist was a dead-man walking.

It's possible that Crist and his team regretted forgoing a second term in Tallahassee, as it seemed unlikely that he would have faced a serious challenge. But once he left the Republican Senate primary, that would have almost definitely changed. He would have likely found blood-sniffing opposition crawling out of the woodwork and perhaps even Scott or someone else mounting a Tea Party candidacy, either in the GOP primary or as a third candidate in the general election.

That being said, the governorship of Florida in 2011 was no enviable job. Facing historic revenue shortfalls and the need for deep cuts, not to mention the GOP machine's lock on the state legislature, Rick Scott has what anyone moving into the role would have inherited –a very difficult task. Much has been made of Scott's sinking popularity and it's easy to argue that he's earned much of it, but let's not pretend that anyone would have been likely to come out of that first session with gleaming approval numbers.

Nonetheless, Rick Scott is still likely to face a very difficult time winning a second term with a polarized electorate that is pretty split (though not necessarily evenly) between loving or hating the job he's done thus far. Few people are sitting on the fence when it comes to Scott. He'll be vulnerable in 2014, but just who do the Democrats have that might beat him?

Scott was already seen as very beatable in light of the Medicare fraud allegations that Solantic settled on for infractions that occurred while he was CEO. The fact that Alex Sink lost (albeit closely) to an outsider like him, in spite of having a party registration advantage and the opportunity to become the first female governor of the state makes it unlikely she'd get much support for a rematch. Her loss under those circumstances prompted Chris Mathews, host  MSNBC's Hardball, to label her the “worst candidate ever.” Her current position is akin to John Kerry as he sniffed around the presidential field for 2008 and she's unlikely to find any more encouragement than he did.

Beyond Sink, who nonetheless remains far and away the most popular Democrat in the state, the bench is not deep. 2006 candidate Jim Davis, who lost by seven points to Crist, hung his political hat on the High Speed Rail movement and was unable to even get a transit tax passed in Hillsborough County, for which he passionately lobbied. There was talk that the former congressman was even considering a Tampa mayoral run, but was left without a platform when the momentum for the rail failed to mount. Another gubernatorial run on his part isn't likely.

Rod Smith, the current Democratic Party State Chair who ran as Sink's Lt. Governor, lost handily to Davis in the 2006 primary and wouldn't be seen as having much of a chance to dethrone Scott. Bud Chiles brings a big family name to any potential field, but his 2010 effort sputtered when he first contemplated a Democratic run, then decided to file to run as an independent, but bowed out shortly after a meeting with Sink. Chiles brought a coherent, anti-machine politics message, but failed to gain traction at any point, seeming to prove how impossible it is to run outside the party system he was in effect running against. I don't see him cozying up to the Democratic machine anytime soon, which would seem to make another run unlikely or irrelevant.

Will Crist run for governor as a Dem in 2014?

So, with Senator Bill Nelson unlikely to give up his seat in the Senate in what has been a very pro-conservative environment, no credible opponent seems to exist for Democrats to to go after a vulnerable sitting governor. Enter Charlie Crist. Crist clearly has no future in the Florida GOP, who he'd already begun to polarize before abandoning them for an independent run that again seemed to prove the futility of trying to win a statewide race outside of the two parties.

Crist, still the most recognizable politician in the state, is staying on the grid while starring in commercials for Morgan & Morgan, the deep pocketed law firm he joined, headed by personal injury magnate and long-time Democratic donor John Morgan. Of course he needed a job, but it seems like his choice might have had at least a little to do with a chance to run for office again, and I think Crist knows that he'd have to do so as a Democrat to be competitive.

A moderate-centrist, who's still probably right of center, Crist had come to be chastised as a RINO (Republican in Name Only) by the party's right wing who grew increasingly conservative during his reign. It's hard to imagine now, but in 2008 Crist was being hailed as part of the new breed of Republican centrists like Arnold Schwarzenegger and even Rudy Giuliani who could pass a litmus test, but draw moderate independents and even some Democrats with flexibility on social and environmental issues. He was even on the short list for McCain’s running mate and there were whispers at the time, asking whether he'd run for president himself in 2012.

A run against Scott might be an accidental boon, as it would allow him to circumvent term limits and essentially be as though he'd taken a break during what would have been a very difficult period for him as governor had he won in 2010 and faced a veto proof majority in his party -- one bent on overturning many of the ones he'd signed during his term.

A lot of Democrats scoff at the idea of Crist representing them, but I have to think they understand how shallow their field is and see him as being preferable to Scott. If he succeeds, it might also help them down ballot and while I think it'd be very unlikely they'd secure a majority in either chamber (even if he won two terms), it could at least help them get free of the veto-proof handcuffs that have all but neutered them in the Capitol.

Crist is a politician and he's far too young to hang 'em up. If he wants back in, he'll have to reinvent himself in a major way and this is the only way he could do that without going even further down the ballot. The only other “best-case” scenario would be a well-funded congressional run in a reliable district, but again he would likely have big trouble getting out of any Republican primary. Alex Sink on the ticket as Lt. Governor could appease the party faithful and give Dems their only viable chance at reclaiming Tallahassee. If Crist managed to win eight more years, he'd have a Lawton Chiles like legacy and is young enough that a White House run could still be in the cards. Think its crazy? Remember, in politics anything can and usually does happen.