Possible 2012 Presidential Candidates: Part 4

In the first three parts of this series, we took a look at the most mainstream potential Republican candidates for the 2012 presidential nomination. In this fourth and final installment, we'll take a look at some of the dark horses that are likely to enter the race, starting with the Congressman from Texas who has again been generating considerable buzz, Ron Paul.

Ron Paul – Congressman Paul was the biggest surprise of 2008, quietly raising remarkable support through a campaign that mostly existed on the Internet. Paul's grass-roots run now seems to have been slightly ahead of its time, as some of his ideas that sounded radical just two years ago went on to help propel many Republican candidates to victory this fall, and no doubt Paul's successful dissemination of libertarian ideals deserves a great deal of the credit for that recent success.

Ron Paul first ran for the presidency as the Libertarian Party candidate in 1988. More of a fringe campaign than genuine bid, his goal was to spread that philosophy more than pull off a miracle victory. A fierce fiscal conservative, Paul deemed Ronald Regan's presidency a failure because of its unprecedented deficits and costly imperialism. Congressman Paul is a devout libertarian, which has earned him the nickname "Dr. No," in Washington. He is heavily principled and unwilling to compromise for the sake of political expediency – a truly rare quality in the political arena.

An OBGYN by trade, Dr. Paul is a constitutionalist that strongly believes in limiting the role of federal government to the prescribed powers of that document. He has vowed to abolish many federal agencies if elected, including the Department of Education and the IRS. He is also a strong supporter of national sovereignty, leaving him adamantly opposed to NAFTA, the United Nations, the WTO and NATO. He believes in free trade, rather than managed trade and would leave nearly all regulation to the individual  states. As for foreign policy, Paul is a staunch non-interventionist and while he believes that the primary role of the federal government should be defense, he opposes any sort of preemptive aggression and only recognizes the legitimacy of combat after a declaration of war. He was the only 2008 GOP primary candidate to have voted against the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Among his increasingly popular positions, is the gradual end to the Federal Reserve. Congressman Paul does not recognize the government's authority to allow a private central bank to print legal currency and feels that the Fed has had a negative impact on American markets through its currency manipulation. He authored the best-selling book End the Fed to further explain why he thinks that the private institution conceived by elite bankers works against the average American's interest in favor of enriching those same elite few. The popularity of the book and its critical reception have helped educate Americans on the nature of the Fed system and Paul's success at creating real and historical dialogue on a subject once considered the domain of conspiracy theorists has been a major accomplishment.

Congressman Paul also believes that the personal income tax could be abolished if spending were reduced to year 2000 levels and many services eliminated. Socially, he is staunchly pro-life, pro-gun rights and anti-gay rights. However, he again feels that such issues should be decided at the state level, without any federal interference.

In 2008, Paul was largely shut out by the mainstream media, including the conservative Fox News who refused to allow him to participate in one debate and  pretty much marginalized his candidacy from the outset, in much the same way the the traditionally "liberal" outlets did to Paul's antithesis, Democratic nominee Dennis Kucinich. While many academics saw Kucinich and Paul as the classic embodiment of the liberal and conservative philosophies that most Americans tend to fall into, the mainstream media on both ends, instead focused the vast majority of their attention on the pro-corporate candidates from the heart of the major parties. While McCain was presented by the media as a true conservative and Obama as a progressive liberal, supporters of Paul and Kucinich found the two eventual nominees much closer to each other, than either of their preferred candidates.

According to tradition, Congressman Paul will be named Chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee when Republicans take over the House in January. Believe it or not, this would put him in a position to exercise considerable oversight over the Federal Reserve – the one he wants to abolish! Paul could call hearings and compel testimony through subpoenas. This would give him a tremendous platform from which to question the Fed's role and bring more of his ideas further into the mainstream as the primary race unfolds.
 
Ironically, Paul was seen in 2008 as a candidate who might strike a chord with independents in the general election, while having a difficult time getting out of the party's primary. In 2010, it was the primary system where mainstream Republicans had the most trouble, a phenomenon largely owed to Tea Party movements that more or less followed the doctrine of Ron Paul.

Make no mistake, the very powerful GOP machine has zero interest in a candidate like Paul, who refuses to employ ideological flexibility for the special interests that fill the party coffers (Newt Gingrich and the first President Bush have both campaigned against him in the past), but 2012 may indeed be a different animal and Ron Paul's politics will not seem nearly as extreme to truly conservative voters as they did just two years ago. At that time, the collective response to the suggestion of ending the Fed was, "yeah, but you can't really do that." His book has become a bestseller because Americans are now asking, exactly why not?  

Jeb Bush – There are consistent rumblings ripping through the rumor mill that W's little brother is quietly assembling a team and testing the waters for a 2012 run. I'm not so sure. First off, faint rumors in Washington are usually just that. In a town where secrets are rarely kept quiet, especially big ones, it's unlikely that such movement would yield so little noise. Plus, major players usually don't wait until its late in the game when all of the best operatives are in someone else's camp. Also, every real contender wants to get the jump on big money since 2012 will undoubtedly spawn another astronomical increase in presidential campaigning.

Nevertheless, the rumors have persisted and Jeb Bush hasn't completely put them to rest, only lukewarmly asserting that he's not intending to run, much in the way he did when it was speculated that he would seek Senator Martinez's vacated seat. The younger Bush has long been praised as the brightest star in the family and had his older brother's popularity not been so low upon his his exit, Jeb may well have ran in 2008, when he had the momentum of exiting the Florida Governor's mansion on term limits.

Bush tends to keep his cards close to his vest, so even those in his inner circle insist that they do not know much about his future political ambitions. Policy-wise, Bush is a prototypical neo-conservative. A former member of the Project for a New American Century, Bush was among those making a case for an invasion of Iraq as early as 1999. Since then, he's done nothing to separate himself from that sort of "global leader/preemptive-war" ideology and while disapproval of George W. Bush's presidency has waned slightly, it does not appear that neo-conservative politics will play well in 2012, even among Republicans.

2010 demonstrated a thirst for less government, less foreign aggression, balanced budgets and a departure from the corporate cronyism that has plagued Washington. Many Republicans are confronting the reality that their party's presidents have consistently run more deficits and further expanded government than those of their opponents, ignoring many of the founding tenants of conservatism outside of social issues. While candidates on the Libertarian wing of the party have long been deriding such follies, voters are beginning to take on that juxtaposition, and at least in 2010, were willing to make changes at the polls. The neo-conservative philosophy is far from dead, but 2012 might not be the year to put them on the big stage and Jeb Bush probably knows this. If we see him in 2012 it would more likely be as a running mate, or even in a cabinet position later.

Mike Pence – Pence is serving his 10th year in Congress, representing a GOP stronghold in eastern Indiana. He may be the candidate with the best chance whose name you've never heard. Pence was rumored to be considering a run for the governor's mansion when he began visiting Iowa and New Hampshire, a clear sign that he was testing out a presidential run. Republicans stood up and took notice when he bested Mike Huckabee in the straw poll at the Value Voters Summit, a major conservative Christian event organized by the Family Research Council.

Pence may be waiting on final word from Indiana governor Mitch Daniels before making his next move. If Daniels enters the primary, Pence would probably look toward the governorship. However, if Daniels does not run, Pence would most likely throw his hat into the presidential ring. Pence is another far-right wing conservative. He distinguishes himself in being among the most fervent supporters of Israeli defense and aggression and for being among the staunchest advocates of religion in schools.

Pence voted against including sexual orientation in federal hate crimes legislation and supports a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. He was a strong advocate for the invasion of Iraq and strongly supported our occupation, while opposing our withdrawal. The five-term congressman is a star of the GOP and holds the coveted Chair of the House Republican Conference. In 2006, he placed second to John Boehner in the election of the House Minority Leader.

A former radio show host himself, Pence enjoys warm support from the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham. Congressman Pence may yet emerge as a serious candidate, especially if Huckabee does not run, but I don't think he's ready for prime time quite yet. He does not seem to possess the same disarming personality of his friend Mitch Daniels, or Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, a fellow conservative who's won broad crossover support in a liberal state.

Mike Pence has managed a successful rise within the GOP while holding a safe seat and catering to the core of his party, but he seems to lack any sort of appeal to the moderate and independent voters that would be key to a victory. Look for Pence to get into the mix and maybe be mentioned as a potential veep and then use his broader name recognition to eventually ascend to the top of the House leadership. In fact, he could very well be the heir to Newt Gingrich, in terms of his role in the party.

John Bolton – You might remember Bolton as the former, short-lived US Ambassador to the United Nations appointed by President Bush. Then again, you might not. Bolton was the gentleman with mismatched mustache and hair that President Bush could not get confirmed despite an intense effort to push his nomination through Congress.

President Bush eventually installed him at the U.N. via a recess appointment, but Bolton later withdrew when further attempts to get him confirmed were again unsuccessful. Bolton is the neo-conservative's neo-conservative, a lifelong bureaucrat/diplomat with all of the usual neo-con think tank and policy institute experience – Project for a New American Century, The American Enterprise Institute, and of course Fox News.

Bolton embodies the Henry Kissinger, Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz ideology and was at the center of the Weapons of Mass Destruction scandal, where several employees of his at the State Department accused Bolton of ignoring evidence that was not in sync with the Bush Administration's preference for invasion. If elected, the betting odds on an invasion of Iran, South Korea, or just about anyplace else would rise quickly.

Bolton's divisive nature, abrasive personality and utter lack of charisma probably limit his chances of getting the nomination to somewhere just above zero, but he has admitted to consulting with advisors regarding the logistics of a run. His involvement could make the debate more interesting, as GOP candidates would have to confront this division in the party more head on, but calling Bolton a fringe contender would probably be an overstatement.

Rick Santorum – The former two-term Senator from Pennsylvania is a favorite among the religious right and he's been doing all of the normal pre-primary rounds, including an Iowa fundraiser. Santorum's 2006 Senate defeat to Bob Casey was biggest in a Senate race since 1980 and his career is riddled with controversy.

A devout Catholic, Santorum suggested that the church's sex abuse scandal was owed to our sick culture of moral relativism which of course affected the priests like everyone else. He pointed to the fact that much of the abuse was centered around a culturally liberal academic center like Boston as evidence that the liberal elite were more to blame than the church itself.

Santorum also made remarks in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, implying that those who did not vacate the city in advance of the storm deserved the consequences, remarks that he later backed away from during his losing campaign to Casey. Santorum was among the first to advocate the mandatory teaching of creationism in public schools, trying unsuccessfully to include it in the 2001 No Child Left Behind act. He is staunchly pro-life and anti-gay rights.  
Santorum also made some waves when it was revealed that in 2004 that the Senator had fraudulently used the address of a rental property he owned in Pittsburgh to receive residency tuition assistance in a Pennsylvania "cyber" charter school that his children were enrolled in, while the family actually resided in Leesburgh, Virginia. The scandal was a major issue in the the 2006 campaign.

Earlier that year, Santorum hastily organized a press conference covered by Fox News to declare that, "We have found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq – chemical weapons." Santorum was referring to expired casings from more than a decade earlier and the White House quickly corrected the report to assure the public that these were not part of the purported threat that the Iraqi invasion was based on. Santorum was widely panned for the misleading nature of his announcement.

Clearly, Santorum brings more than a little bit of baggage to a run and I strongly doubt he'd be a serious contender for either the nomination or the bottom half of the ticket. Outside of his relatively small, conservative Catholic base, he'd be unlikely to be competitive among the stronger candidates. Like Bolton, Santorum is so immersed in the neo-conservative movement that he seems something of a relic in the current political climate.

Part 1: Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich

Part 2: John Tune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry

Part 3: Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Haley Barbour