NOAA Reports 1 Percent Chance of Oil Reaching Anna Maria Island and Other Local Beaches

MANATEE COUNTY – A new NOAA computer model of likely gulf oil dispersion shows our local beaches being among the safest in the state, with a mere 1 percent chance of oil and tarballs washing ashore. The model shows Miami and Key West being most vulnerable, with an 80 percent chance of oil making landfall.

Evidence still points to the probability of the clockwise-flowing loop current carrying the oil toward our state's southern tip, before a significant amount could continue eastward, though the oil remains relatively far from the current's pull at this time.

The model did not consider the possible effects of a gulf hurricane and how it might redirect the oil. A looming, low-pressure system could turn into a tropical depression by tomorrow. Hurricane Alex already slowed cleanup efforts, demonstrating that even if a hurricane fails to strike the gulf, a busy storm season could continually delay clean-up efforts.

Since the spill-containment operation requires five days advance time to prep for storm precautions, any storm capable of impacting personnel and equipment is likely to cause meaningful delays in progress.